Heat Check: Season 3 Edition

This is the third installment in the Heat Check series, where we check in on how successful franchises have been using a thermometer as our reference scale. The short version of how this is calculated is that teams earn points for winning seasons and postseason success and teams with losing records stay the same...and then everyone goes a little backwards between the last out of the World Series and the first long toss of Spring Training because even virtual baseball players deserve some time off and get a little rusty.  The longer version, including the formulas and the inspiration for this series, can be found here. Without further ado, let's see how everyone is doing with two seasons of data to work with: 

Boiling Hot (Above 212*F/100*C or better)

Steamy (Above 100*F/37.8*C)

  • Trenton: Started S2 @ 86.3*, won 106 games + Division Title + Pennant, starts S3 @ 102*F
  • Syracuse: Started S2 @ 75.7* won 111 games, Division Title + WS Ring, starts S3 @ 101.5*F  

Warm (Above Room Temperature, aka 72*F/?*C)

  • St. Louis: Started S2 @ 95.4*, won 111 games + Division Title, starts S3 @ 96.7*F
  • Texas: started S2 @ 83.6*F, won 84 games + made playoffs, starts S3 @ 80.5*F
  • Boston: Started S2 @ 75.7*F, won 119 games + Division Title, starts S3 @ 78.8*F (214 wins all time) 
  • New Orleans: Started S2 @ 75.7*, won 106 games + Division Title, starts S3 @ 78.8*F (202 wins all time)

Cool (Below Room Temperature, aka 72*F/?*C)

  • Fresno: Started S2 @ 70*, won 83 games & made playoffs, starts S3 @ 71.1*F
  • Indianapolis: Started @ 70*, won 97 games + made playoffs, starts S3 @ 70.8*F
  • Buffalo: Started @ 70*, won 91 games + made playoffs, starts S3 @ 68.1*F (181 wins all time)
  • Chicago (NL): Started S2 @ 70*, won 88 games & missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 68.1*F (173 wins all time)
  • Mexico City: Started S2 @ 65.4*, won 88 games & made playoffs, starts S3 @ 67*F
  • Salt Lake City: Started S2 @ 73*F, won 81 games + made playoffs, starts S3 @ 66.3*F (169 wins all time)
  • Scottsdale: Starts S2 @ 73*, won 74 games & missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 66.3*F (163 wins all time)
  • Charlotte: Started S2 @ 73*, won 67 games & missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 66.3*F (155 wins all time)
  • Montgomery: Started S2 @ 65.4*, won 88 games + made playoffs, starts S3 @ 64.0*F (168 wins all time)
  • San Antonio: Started S2 @ 65.4*, won 86 games & missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 64.0*F (162 wins all time)
  • Durham: Started @ 65.4*F, won 83 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 64.0*F (159 wins all time)
  • Tacoma: Started S2 @ 70*, won 78 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 63.6*F (166 wins all time)
  • Baltimore: Started S2 @ 70*, won 70 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 63.6*F (162 wins all time)
  • Tucson: Started S2 @ 65.4*F, won 80 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (157 wins all time)
  • Fargo: Started S2 @ 65.4*F, won 80 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (155 wins all time) 
  • New York: Started S2, won 77 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (148 wins all time)
  • Arizona: Started S2 @ 65.4*F, won 66 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (143 wins all time)
  • Rochester: Started @ 65.4*F, won 65 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (138 wins all time)
  • Helena: Started @ 65.4*F, won 65 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (136 wins all time); Vancouver: Started S2 @ 65.4*F,  won 65 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (136 wins all time)
  • Philadelphia: Started S2 @ 65.4*F, won 61 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (134 wins all time) & Louisville: Started S2 @ 65.4*F, won 67 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (134 wins all time)
  • Colorado Springs: Started S2 @ 65.4*F, won 58 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (129 wins all time) 
  • Cincinnati: Started @ 65.4*F, won 62 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (122 wins all time)
  • Los Angeles: Started @ 65.4*F, won 61 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (117 wins all time)
  • Nashville: Started @ 65.4*F, won 57 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (114 wins all time) 

Freezing Cold (Below 32*F/0*C)

Absolutely Frigid (Below 0*F/-17.8*C)


    S4 Initial Power Rankings

    Richard Castle - contributing reporter




    Ladies and gentlemen, baseball romantics, and those of you who read these rankings purely out of spite—welcome back. It’s been a while, hasn’t it? Long enough that I half-expected to return and find the league replaced by robots, scandals, or a shocking midseason plot twist involving identical twins. But no—Hardball Stitches is alive, dramatic as ever, and finally ready to unveil the very first power rankings of Season 4.

    Now, early-season rankings are a bit like first chapters: wildly misleading, full of red herrings, and guaranteed to break someone’s heart by page ten. But that’s the fun of it. New contenders rise from the shadows, old favorites stumble out of the gate, and at least one team inevitably insists, “We’re better than our record.” Sure, and I’m a quiet, subtle writer who hates attention.

    But enough preamble. The scene is set, the suspects are assembled, and the plot is already thickening faster than a New York cheesecake. So grab your magnifying glass—or your popcorn. Season 4’s story begins now, and trust me… you’re going to want to read every word.
    • Best Record
      • Fargo Mud Dogs
    • 2nd Best
      • Baltimore IronBirds & Trenton Thunderbolts
    • 3rd Best
      • Boston Act As If Afflects
    • 4th Best
      • St Louis Archers
    • 5th Best
      • Syracuse Firebirds & Texas Toast




    But for now, let's talk about expected wins - or, in other words, how teams SHOULD be playing. Are some squads punching above their weight class? Are others underperforming like a blockbuster flop? Time to separate reality from illusion. 

    .736 - Trenton Thunderbolts (NL-N Champ)
    .679 - Boston 'Act As If' Afflects (AL Wildcard 1) & Baltimore IronBirds (AL-E Champ)
    .675 - Fargo Mud Dogs (AL-N Champ)
    .629 - St. Louis Archers (NL-E Champ)
    .609 - Texas Toast (AL-S Champ)
    .600 - Chicago Northsiders (NL Wildcard 1)
    .583 - Buffalo Bomb Squad & Montgomery Fightins
    .541 - Syracuse Firebirds (AL Wildcard 2)
    .540 - Tucson Road Runners (NL-W Champ)
    .536 - San Antonio Yo-Yo Bros Yo (NL Wildcard 2)
    .512 - Cincinnati Redlegs
    .495 - Fresno Romans
    .493 - Mexico City Luchadors
    .491 - New Orleans Voodoo
    .489 - Tacoma Armada 
    .485 - Vancouver Blue Heron
    .477 - New York Pizza Rats
    .467 - Colorado Springs Ranchers
    .463 - Durham Corgis
    .462 - Indianapolis Speedsters 
    .458 - Nashville Hot (NL-S Champ)
    .426 - Philadelphia Hooligans
    .411 - Rochester Mighty Flour Mills
    .398 - Los Angeles Labradors (AL-W Champ)
    .391 - Scottsdale Sazeracs
    .378 - Louisville Bourbon Chasers
    .362 - Helena Highlanders
    .352 - Salt Lake City Trappers
    .324 - Arizona Canyon Kings
    .316 - Charlotte Intimidators 


    The dreaded list
     
    Team                            On Pace Wins    Expect Win %
    Salt Lake City Trappers       45 W                57 W
    Arizona Canyon Kings        53 W                53 W

    Labels:

    S4 The Six-Tier Mirage: Dispatches from the International Frontier

    Eli Cash - contributing reporter

    I was sitting in a hotel bar in Santo Domingo when the first whispers came through the ceiling fan — the kind of whispers that smell like ambition and motor oil. Six tiers. Six layers of the economic afterlife. A new system to measure what a team can spend on hope, or at least the version of hope that throws ninety-seven and can hit a curveball in the dark. The bartender told me the tiers were supposed to make things “fair.” I told him fairness is a rumor spread by accountants.

    Tier One rides tall — these are the desert kings, the oil scions, the men who believe the world was built so they could sign it. Their checkbooks glint like machetes in the sun. They don’t scout — they summon. You can almost hear the laughter of the gods when they announce a $5 million bonus for a kid who hasn’t yet learned to shave. I envy them in the way one might envy a thunderstorm: destructive, inevitable, and somehow poetic.

    • Indianapolis 

      • Tier Two is not so rich in blood or gold, but they still carry a certain nobility — like the second son of a forgotten dynasty, sipping flat champagne in the shadow of empire. These teams still dream big, but they have to dream clever. They talk about “market inefficiencies” as if that’s a kind of faith. I’ve seen their scouts sleeping in airports, translating potential into per diem receipts. There’s a sadness in it, but also a kind of quiet art.

    • Charlotte
    • Salt Lake City
    • Fresno

      • Tier Three lives in the gray — what I call the philosophical middle class of baseball. They can afford to gamble, but only on a horse that’s already half-broken. These are the teams who find poetry in the waiver wire, who believe every $600,000 shortstop from Caracas might just be the key to eternal life. I respect their delusion. I share it.

    • Tacoma
    • Philadelphia
    • Helena
    • Baltimore
    • Arizona
    • Durham
    • Vancouver

      • Tier Four is where the mirage starts to fade. They wander the same desert as the rest, but their canteens are dry. You’ll hear their GMs talk about “development focus,” “internal growth,” and “strategic restraint.” I’ve used all those phrases myself, usually right before my editor stops returning calls. They don’t buy players — they rent dreams. Sometimes the dreams come due. Usually they don’t.

    • Cincinnati
    • Rochester
    • Scottsdale
    • Colorado Springs
    • Texas

      • Tier Five… well, these are the haunted ones. They’re the teams whose fax machines still hum with regret. They know the numbers, the limitations, the futility of their chase, and yet they show up at the market anyway — like a man showing up to a duel with a pocketknife and a poem. I admire their courage, though it often looks like confusion. Somewhere deep down, they must believe that destiny still accepts credit.

    • Chicago
    • Boston
    • Tucson
    • Trenton
    • Nashville
    • Los Angeles
    • Montgomery
    • New York
    • Louisville

      • And then there’s Tier Six. The forgotten pilgrims. The ones who watch the whole show from the cheap seats of history. Their budgets are smaller than the tip line at Tier One’s team dinner. Yet somehow, they persist — the monks of the market, trading faith instead of funds. Maybe they’ll find a kid out there who doesn’t care about money, just the smell of leather and red dirt. Maybe they won’t. Either way, they’ll tell themselves it’s noble.

    • Buffalo
    • San Antonio
    • New Orleans
    • Mexico City
    • Fargo
    • St Louis
    • Syracuse

      • Because that’s the trick, isn’t it? The market isn’t about money — it’s about mythology. Every team believes it’s building a legend. Every scout believes he’s found a ghost. Every general manager thinks he’s outsmarted gravity. But in the end, they all wake up in the same heat, under the same sky, staring at the same mirage that keeps the whole thing moving.

      I left the bar that night and walked out into the alley behind the stadium. A kid was throwing a ball against a rusted fence — barefoot, balanced on dreams alone. I asked him what tier he thought he belonged to. He shrugged and said, “The one that signs me.”

      Maybe that’s the only truth there is. The tiers are just scaffolding. The rest is dust and destiny.

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      S4 Draft Order

      Amy Amanda 'Triple A' Allen - contributing reporter

      Alright Hardball Stitches fans, we have an updated draft order for Season 4 as it stands today. Current Round 1 and Comp Round as of the recent Type A/B signings. We've noted teams who have more than 2 picks. 7 of the 18 Type As were compensated with 1st round picks, 

      1. Arizona
      2. Baltimore
      3. Charlotte
      4. Louisville
      5. Scottsdale
      6. Cincinnati
      7. Colorado Springs - Type D
      8. Durham
      9. Nashville
      10. Vancouver
      11. Philadelphia
      12. Los Angeles
      13. Rochester
      14. Colorado Springs (2nd pick)
      15. New York
      16. Helena
      17. Salt Lake City
      18. Tacoma
      19. Buffalo
      20. Tacoma via Mexico City - Deven Bickerton (2nd pick)
      21. Chicago
      22. Mexico City via Montgomery - Allie Walls
      23. Texas
      24. Tacoma - Type D (3rd pick)
      25. Indianapolis
      26. Tucson
      27. San Antonio
      28. Charlotte via Fesno - Howard Quinn (2nd pick)
      29. Boston
      30. Texas via New Orleans - Jose Rios (2nd pick)
      31. Charlotte via Fargo - Benji Richardson (3rd pick)
      32. Syracuse
      33. Charlotte via Trenton - Vincete DeSoto (4th pick)
      34. Baltimore via St Louis - Joe Winston (2nd pick)
      35. Charlotte - A (5th pick)
      36. Arizona - A (2nd pick)
      37. Baltimore - A (3rd pick)
      38. Tacoma - A  (4th pick)
      39. Mexico City - A (2nd pick)
      40. Texas - A (3rd pick)
      41. Tucson - A (2nd pick)
      42. Fresno - A
      43. Boston - A (2nd pick)
      44. Trenton - A
      45. St Louis - A
      46. Charlotte - A (6th pick)
      47. Mexico City - A (3rd pick)
      48. Texas - A (4th pick)
      49. Boston - A (3rd pick)
      50. St Louis - A (2nd pick)
      51. Boston - A (4th pick)
      52. St Louis - A (3rd pick)
      53. Durham - B (2nd pick)
      54. Nashville - B (2nd pick)
      55. Charlotte - B (7th pick)
      56. Vancouver - B (2nd pick)
      57. Baltimore - B (4th pick)
      58. Los Angeles - B (2nd pick)
      59. Colorado Springs - B (3rd pick)
      60. Tacoma - B (5th pick)
      61. Chicago - B (2nd pick)
      62. Indianapolis - B (2nd pick)
      63. New Orleans - B
      64. Fargo - B
      65. Nashville - B (3rd pick)
      66. Indianapolis - B (3rd pick)
      67. New Orleans - B (2nd pick)
      68. Fargo - B (2nd pick)
      Remaining Type A/B players in Free Agency (I could be missing some)
      • LF Gerald Ledee - B - Scottsdale
      • 3B Leo Gwynn - B - Trenton
      • SS Feliple Tabata - B - Rochester
      • LF Al Ruffin - B - Cincinnati
      • RF Brendan Craig - B - Vancouver

      The Ball That Shouldn’t Have Risen

       Jack Torrance - contributing reporter


      It begins, as all miracles and nightmares do — quietly.

      The baseballs are spinning. A cyclone of white leather, red seams, and blind hope. Inside the glass, they crash and ricochet, each one desperate to be the one. The audience breathes in unison, like a congregation watching a storm crawl toward their church.

      The lights flicker. The air hums.

      Then something happens.
      A tremor.
      A sound that isn’t mechanical, not quite.

      And from the churning storm — a single ball begins to rise.

      Slowly. Too slowly.

      The studio is frozen. Cameras fix on it, lenses wide and trembling. A murmur ripples through the crowd, that low, uncertain murmur that always comes before revelation.

      The ball spins, turns, reveals a mark — faint, almost hesitant — Arizona Canyon Kings.


      For a heartbeat, no one reacts. The odds said 3.90%. The math said almost impossible.
      But the machine — the machine never lies.

      Then the eruption comes. Cheers, disbelief, the stunned laughter of a team that just watched the laws of probability bend in their favor. Arizona rises from the desert dust, crowned in the glow of the first overall pick.

      Across the stage, Baltimore blinks twice, still unsure if it’s real.
      Their odds were lower — 2.7%, almost nothing — yet they’ve clawed up to the No. 2 pick. A miracle, or maybe just another trick of the glass. Either way, the Ironbirds are soaring tonight, and everyone knows it.

      The rest fall into place, one by one — a roll call of the faithful, the broken, the nearly blessed.

      1. Arizona Canyon Kings

      2. Baltimore Ironbirds

      3. Charlotte Intimidators

      4. Louisville Bourbon Chasers

      5. Scottsdale Sazeracs

      6. Cincinnati Redlegs

      7. Durham Corgis

      8. Nashville Hot

      9. Vancouver Seawolves

      10. Philadelphia Hooligans

      11. Los Angeles Labradors

      12. Rochester Mighty Flour Mills

      13. Colorado Springs Ranchers

      14. New York Pizza Rats

      15. Helena Highlanders

      16. Salt Lake City Trappers

      Somewhere in the back row, a man from Durham rubs his temples. They had hope — always do — but the machine had other plans. Charlotte and Louisville trade polite smiles that don’t reach their eyes. New York sits still, the kind of stillness that smells like resentment.

      The studio lights burn too bright now. The chrome glistens, the glass gleams, and for a strange moment, the entire stage feels alive — breathing, pulsing, feeding on every gasp, every cheer, every broken sigh.

      Someone whispers, “It chose Arizona,” and the phrase lingers like frost on the tongue.

      The host smiles again — that same hotel-lobby smile — and declares the lottery complete. Cameras flash. Confetti falls. The crowd exhales.

      But the machine keeps humming.
      It always hums.
      Because even when the lights go out, it remembers who it lifted up…
      and who it left behind.

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      Before the Ball Rises

      Jack Torrance - contributing reporter

      They say the baseballs are sleeping now. Resting in their transparent chamber, each one identical — polished, numbered, waiting. But we know better. We know they feel the tension, the electric hum that creeps through the studio like static on old wallpaper.

      It’s Draft Lottery Night in Hardball Stitches, Season 4. Sixteen teams. Sixteen chances. One truth: somebody’s luck is about to change, and somebody’s dream will dissolve under bright lights.

      The stage glows sterile and silver, all glass and steel and reflection — the kind of place where destiny doesn’t whisper, it hums through the floorboards. On the monitor above, the league’s insignia spins like an eye that never blinks: HARDBALL STITCHES — SEASON 4 DRAFT LOTTERY

      There’s applause, of course. Polite. Nervous. Manufactured.
      But underneath the surface, you can feel it — the quiet, desperate heartbeat of sixteen front offices waiting for salvation. The contenders stand still in their rows, each team clutching its little share of probability, its fraction of fate.

      Durham. Charlotte. Nashville. Cincinnati. Louisville. Scottsdale. Vancouver. Arizona. Baltimore. Philadelphia. Los Angeles. Rochester. Colorado Springs. New York. Helena. Salt Lake City.

      Sixteen names, strung like rosary beads. Each one has whispered their prayers to the same cold machine.

      Behind the glass, the lottery drum waits — immaculate, mirrored, heartless. A glint of chrome catches the overhead spotlight, and for an instant it looks alive. There’s something almost holy about it. Or maybe hungry.

      The host smiles the kind of smile that belongs in hotel portraits and fever dreams.
      He says the words everyone’s been waiting for: “It’s time to begin the draw.”

      A mechanical hiss. The first baseball trembles. They begin to spin — a white blur, a storm of motion, all hope and chaos compressed into one transparent sphere.

      Around the room, tension crackles like lightning over snow. Some stare straight ahead. Some can’t bear to look. The numbers blur together — 16 chances to be rewritten, 16 doors that lead to entirely different futures.

      You can hear the soft clink of baseballs colliding — the rhythm of fate, the soft percussion of anxiety.

      And then… silence.

      One will rise.
      One will break the symmetry.
      One will wear the crown of the Season 4 Draft.

      But not yet. Not yet.

      For now, they spin.
      And every GM in the room is thinking the same thing — the same, desperate line, scratched somewhere deep inside the skull:

      “All work and no luck makes for a long, cold season.”

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