Season 8 Draft Lottery

 As we wrap up the Season 7 regular season, I am able to get a jump on a number of blog segments but I am going to start with the Draft Lottery for next season as that involves more than just me. For those who are new, or who need a refresher, the process involves three fairly quick steps: 1) establish draft odds 2) run the lottery and then 3) enforce the 55-win MWR where necessary.

For Step 1, we will use the final win totals of the season regardless of MWR status which gives us the following:


Step 2 is to run the lottery using those odds, and the results are as follows: 


Step 3 is to enforce the MWR where appropriate. During Season 6 the wording that we settled on was "Teams winning fewer than 55 games in a season will pick no higher than 10th in the ensuing Amateur Draft regardless of lottery results. If multiple teams win less than 55 games, the team that comes the closest receives the 10th pick, 2nd closest gets the 11th pick, and so on. Ties will be broken using the highest Expected Win Percentage among tied teams." This season we had two violations: Colorado Springs (50 wins) and Arizona (51 wins). Arizona's ownership group is moving on after this season, so that negates the MWR violation leaving us with just Colorado Springs needing to be adjusted. 

With the adjustment of Colorado Springs dropping to 10th as a result of the MWR, the Season 8 Draft Order (before Comp Picks) is the following: 

  1. Durham 
  2. Tacoma
  3. Former Arizona
  4. Louisville
  5. Houston
  6. Former Detroit
  7. Mexico City
  8. Fresno
  9. Buffalo
  10. Colorado Springs
  11. San Antonio
  12. Baltimore
  13. Helena
  14. Burlington
  15. Portland
  16. Texas
  17. Philadelphia
  18. Rochester
  19. New York
  20. St. Louis
  21. Los Angeles
  22. Scranton
  23. New Orleans
  24. Syracuse
  25. Nashville
  26. Cheyenne
  27. Former Trenton {will be taken over by editor21}
  28. Montgomery
  29. Tucson
  30. Boise
  31. Cincinnati
  32. Fargo



Season 6 Recap

Archers Overpower Mud Dogs for Third Title

The St. Louis Archers became the first team in Hardball Stitches history to win three World Series championships and brought their Franchise Temperature up to 153.8*F (67.7*C) in the process. Leading the way on offense was Arodys Esposito and his 0.996 post-season OPS, including a 0.333 batting average. Cy Young winner Derrek Cone also spearheaded the postseason pitching attack with a 2.14 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over 46 1/3 innings to earn a 4-1 record. 

 All-Star Weekend: Hosted by Buffalo

  • Chance Bierbrodt won the HR Derby with 32 total dingers, but it was OG Stitches MVP Liam Steinbech who won the prize for tape-measure shot of the night with a 524-foot blast. 
  • The NL beat the AL 5-4 in this year's midsummer classic thanks to a four-run bottom of the sixth where all of the scoring came on back-to-back home runs by Cincy teammates: game MVP Arquimedes Villanueva and Engel Velazquez. 
    • The all-time series stands at NL 3, AL 1 (with two games not recorded) and the aggregate score of those four games is AL 25, NL 25.
  • Team World took care of Team USA by a score of 7-2 in the Futures Game. MVP honors went to Tacoma's AAA 2B Raimel Rivera who was 4-for-5 with 2 2B, 2 RBI and a run scored. 
    • This year and last year's 6-4 win by Team World are the only two editions of this matchup that have been recorded, so the all time series stands at World 2, USA 0, Unrecorded 4 and the aggregate total is World 13, USA 6. 

American League

Division Titles 

  • AL North: Fargo (3rd straight)
  • AL East: Boston (6th straight)
  • AL Central: Montgomery (2nd overall) 
  • AL West: Los Angeles (3rd straight)
Wild Cards
  •  Syracuse (3rd straight)
  • New York Pizza Rats (1st ever playoff appearance) 

National League

Division Titles
  • NL North: Trenton (6th straight)
  • NL East: Cincinnati (2nd straight)
  • NL Central: San Antonio (4th straight)
  • NL West:  Fresno (3rd overall)
Wild Cards
  • St. Louis (2nd straight)
  • Tucson (1st ever WC, 3rd straight playoff appearance) 

League Leaders {Overall leaders in bold italics}

Batting
Hits: Bucky Ward  214 in AL, Matthew Corey 214 in NL 
Average: Bucky Ward 0.360 in AL,  Matthew Corey 0.342 in NL 
Home Runs: Mateo Lopez 54 in AL, Ricardo Figueroa 56 in NL
Runs: Mickey Villegas 123 in AL, Vladimir Daniels 143 in NL 
Runs Batted In: Mateo Lopez  140 in AL,  Matthew Corey 158 in NL

Stolen Bases: JR Pagnozzi 61 in AL, Vladimir Daniels 108 in NL

Longest Hit Streak: Bucky Ward  26 in AL, Shin Shoo Ishi 24 in NL 

Pitching
Wins: Vladimir Ordonez 22 in AL, Derrek Cone 24 in NL
Quality Starts: Vladimir Ordonez 26 in AL, Derrek Cone/Allen Maysonet/Louie Vizquel/Magglio Mieses 26 in NL
Saves: Jose Rios 45 in AL, Shelley Rivers 45 in NL
ERA: Vladimir Ordonez 2.31 in AL, Derrek Cone 2.38 in NL
Strikeouts: Vladimir Ordonez  283 in AL, Rolando Candelaria/Darwin Solis 228 in NL

OAV: Vladimir Ordonez 0.199 in AL, Bernard Moran 0.188 in NL
WHIP: Vladimir Ordonez 1.02 in AL,  Bernard Moran 0.99 in NL

Fielding
Plus Plays: Clint Good 32 in AL, Santo Sanchez 24 in NL 
CS%: Tim Linden 43% in AL, Tyler Stull/Vernon Cunningham 37% in NL
C ERA: Benny Lee 3.54 in AL, Vernon Cunningham 3.36 in NL

Awards

Noteworthy Games

  1. Dustan Nevin vs Vancouver: 4-for-6, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 3 R in 20-8 win {84.75 Game Score}
  2. Chris Gutierrez vs Arizona: 4-for-5, 2 HR, 2B, 7 RBI, 2 R, SB in 12-4 win {83.75 Game Score}
  3. Wayne Wolf vs Philadelphia: 4-for-5, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 3 R, BB, CS in 9-8 win {82.25 Game Score}
  4. Brett Duda vs Buffalo: 4-for-6, 2 HR, 2B, 7 RBI, 2 R in 17-8 win {82.00 Game Score}
  5. Benji Richardson vs Philadelphia: 4-for-5, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 3 R, in 13-4 win {82.00 Game Score}
  6. Bart Mitchell vs Boise: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 2 R, K in 11-10 win {76.75 Game Score}
  7. Kendrys Fernandez vs Durham: 3-for-5, HR, 7 RBI, 2 R, K in 15-6 win {76.75 Game Score}
  8. Juan Carlos Nunez vs San Antonio: 4-for-4, Cycle, RBI, R in 2-0 win {76.75 Game Score}
  9. Bucky Ward vs Baltimore: 2-for-4, HR, 2B, 7 RBI, 2 R, K in 13-4 win {75.00 Game Score}

Minor Leagues

AAA
  • World Series: Portland def. Cincinnati 4-3 for its 1st AAA championship
  • Best Record: Nashville (97-47)
  • Worst Record: Arizona (3-141)
AA
  • World Series: Charlotte def. Boston 4-2 for its 1st AA championship
  • Best Record: Texas (110-34)
  • Worst Record: New York Necromancers (10-134)
High A 
  • World Series: Charlotte def. Boston 4-0 for its 2nd High A championship
  • Best Record: Charlotte (133-11)
  • Worst Record: St. Louis (12-132)
Low A
  • World Series: Charlotte def. Texas 4-3 for its 1st Low A championship
  • Best Record: Charlotte (111-33)
  • Worst Record: St. Louis (12-132)
Rookie
  • World Series: Nashville def. Texas for its 2nd Rookie League championship 
  • Best Record: Nashville (63-13)
  • Worst Record: St. Louis (10-66)



Season 7 Draft Lottery

Now that we’ve ironed out the kinks in the MWR / Draft Lottery process, this should be a pretty quick exercise for the Season 7 Draft Order. As a reminder, this is a three-step process: establish draft odds, run the lottery and then enforce the 55-win MWR where necessary.

Step One: Establish Draft Odds

These are entirely based on the final standings this year, with the bottom sixteen teams having the following chances at the top pick for Season 7:

Step Two: Run The Lottery

The ping-pong balls fell the following way this time around:

Step Three: Enforce the MWR

This year everyone met the 55-win threshold (some just barely, but it still counts!) which means that the order above is the order for the top half of Round 1 next year 😀 For clarity, here is the Draft Order with relocations and Comp Picks accounted for:

1) Charlotte
2) Arizona
3) Colorado Springs
4) Durham
5) Tacoma
6) Nashville
7) Former Vancouver
8) Texas
9) Helena: Comp Pick for Ed Standridge
10) Mexico City
11) Portland
12) Louisville
13) Buffalo
14) Florida
15) Former NY Necromancers: Comp Pick for Slim Carpenter
16) Former NY Necromancers
17) Philadelphia
18) San Antonio
19) Rochester
20) Helena
21) Boise
22) Los Angeles
23) New Orleans
24) Baltimore
25) Montgomery
26) NY Pizza Rats
27) Tucson
28) Fresno
29) Syracuse
30) Scranton
31) St. Louis
32) Trenton
33) Cincinnati
34) Fargo






S6 Third Quarter Power Rankings

 As the Hardball Stitches calendar reaches mid-August, it's time to take a look at how everyone is stacking up against one another...especially now that what our global friends would likely refer to as the "promotion" and "relegation" races are coming into sharper focus. As a reminder, these posts have three main sections - the Power Rankings, the Expected Wins comparisons and the "Relegation Race" aka MWR watch. Let's see how things are going: 

***EDITOR'S NOTE: THE PUBLICATION OF THIS ARTICLE WAS DELAYED, BUT THE SCREENSHOT BELOW WAS TAKEN AFTER GAME #123, WHICH IS THE EXACT THREE-QUARTER MARK OF THE SEASON***

Power Rankings



Expected Win Percentage

  • St. Louis: 0.664 Expected Win% (0.618 Actual) 
  • Fargo: 0.660 Expected Win% (0.637 Actual) 
  • Tucson: 0.616 Expected Win% (0.573 Actual) 
  • Cincinnati: 0.615 Expected Win% (0.639 Actual) 
  • Boston: 0.614 Expected Win% (0.600 Actual) 
  • Baltimore: 0.603 Expected Win% (0.593 Actual)
  • Syracuse: 0.591 Expected Win% (0.600 Actual) 
  • Fresno: 0.565 Expected Win% (0.566 Actual) 
  • Montgomery: 0.563 Expected Win% (0.556 Actual) 
  • Boise: 0.554 Expected Win% (0.517 Actual) 
  • Trenton: 0.548 Expected Win% (0.594 Actual)
  • New York: 0.547 Expected Win% (0.556 Actual) 
  • San Antonio: 0.544 Expected Win% (0.528 Actual) 
  • Los Angeles: 0.521 Expected Win% (0.548 Actual) 
  • Helena: 0.515 Expected Win% (0.514 Actual)
  • Buffalo: 0.502 Expected Win% (0.486 Actual)
  • New Orleans: 0.496 Expected Win% (0.519 Actual) 
  • New York Necromancers: 0.491 Expected Win% (0.465 Actual)
  • Florida: 0.483 Expected Win% (0.462 Actual) 
  • Durham: 0.482 Expected Win% (0.452 Actual) 
  • Philadelphia: 0.479 Expected Win% (0.489 Actual)
  • Louisville: 0.478 Expected Win% (0.459 Actual) 
  • Portland: 0.464 Expected Win% (0.459 Actual) 
  • Mexico City: 0.457 Expected Win% (0.396 Actual) 
  • Texas: 0.453 Expected Win% (0.407 Actual) 
  • Rochester: 0.444 Expected Win% (0.510 Actual) 
  • Charlotte: 0.402 Expected Win% (0.375 Actual) 
  • Tacoma: 0.402 Expected Win% (0.341 Actual) 
  • Vancouver: 0.364 Expected Win% (0.385 Actual) 
  • Nashville: 0.344 Expected Win% (0.420 Actual) 
  • Colorado Springs: 0.310 Expected Win% (0.378 Actual) 
  • Arizona: 0.297 Expected Win% (0.350 Actual) 

MWR Update

Everyone is on pace to win 55 games 😀

Arizona (48) &  Colorado Springs (50) have Expected Win%'s that translate to fewer than 55 wins, but are currently outperforming their Win %'s. 

S6 First Quarter Power Rankings

  We are just over 25% of the way through Season 6 here in Hardball Stitches, so it's time to make our first check of the Quarterly Power Rankings to see where everyone stands as the league prepares to look towards the future and get their draft boards ready. In keeping with mini's tradition, this post will feature three sections: first, the power rankings (which are based on hitting and pitching statistics). Second will be a look the Expected Win Percentages/a comparison with the current win percentages and finally (and hopefully shortly) a look at teams who are on MWR watch for this season. 


Expected Wins
  • Fargo: 0.720 Expected Win% (0.786 Actual) 
  • St. Louis: 0.695 Expected Win% (0.644 Actual)
  • Baltimore 0.682 Expected Win% (0.690 Actual)
  • Cincinnati 0.638 Expected Win% (0.622 Actual)  
  • Los Angeles 0.627 Expected Win% (0.571 Actual) 
  • Tucson 0.597 Expected Win% (0.578 Actual) 
  • Trenton 0.569 Expected Win% (0.667 Actual)
  • Syracuse 0.565 Expected Win% (0.643 Actual) 
  • Trenton 0.564 Expected Win% (0.667 Actual)
  • Helena 0.559 Expected Win% (0.556 Actual)  
  • Montgomery 0.551 Expected Win% (0.500 Actual)
  • Buffalo 0.546 Expected Win% (0.533 Actual) 
  • Portland 0.527 Expected Win% (0.548 Actual)
  • Boise 0.519 Expected Win% (0.467 Actual) 
  • Louisville 0.513 Expected Win% (0.429 Actual) 
  • San Antonio 0.512 Expected Win% (0.511 Actual)
  • Durham 0.496 Expected Win% (0.452 Actual) 
  • Boston 0.491 Expected Win% (0.452 Actual) 
  • New Orleans 0.490 Expected Win% (0.548 Actual) 
  • Philadelphia 0.485 Expected Win% (0.524 Actual)
  • Fresno 0.473 Expected Win% (0.511 Actual) 
  • Charlotte 0.466 Expected Win% (0.400 Actual) 
  • New York 0.463 Expected Win% (0.452 Actual)
  • Mexico City 0.459 Expected Win% (0.444 Actual) 
  • Tacoma 0.459 Expected Win% (0.381 Actual)
  • Rochester 0.451 Expected Win% (0.444 Actual) 
  • New York 0.423 Expected Win% (0.400 Actual)
  • Florida 0.423 Expected Win% (0.356 Actual) 
  • Colorado Springs 0.422 Expected Win% (0.489 Actual)  
  • Texas 0.391 Expected Win% (0.310 Actual) 
  • Vancouver 0.348 Expected Win% (0.357 Actual) 
  • Nashville 0.270 Expected Win% (0.378 Actual) 
  • Arizona 0.249 Expected Win% (0.357 Actual) 
The Dreaded List
  • Texas: 0.310 Win% = 50 win pace


Season 6 Hall of Fame Voting

 For the first time in Hardball Stitches history, we have a player on the HOF Nominations page. PaleHose72 suggested that we vote him in on the basis of being the initial nominee in Stitches history, which I would be 100% on board with 😀 However, I also want to use his candidacy to illustrate the HOF process that I've used in a couple of other worlds that has had pretty good success. 

That process relies on a number of statistics and also a Hall of Fame Committee. In short, we track the statistics and then, as a committee, use those to come up with up to three "Hall of Fame Locks" for the season that the world then pools their votes around to make sure we get at least a few people elected each year. To start with, I want to do a quick rundown of the stats that mini and I have been tracking that will be useful for evaluating HOF candidacy: 

  1. Hall of Fame Monitor Score - My personal favorite of all of Bill James' Hall of Fame metrics, which assigns point values to certain statistical milestones both for individual seasons and overall careers. A score of 100 is a player who "should" be in the Hall while a score of 130 is your "no-brainer, should probably be elected on the first ballot" type. Conversely, a score of 70 could get in but represents a borderline case. I've also seen players with scores in the 50s get in if they have some sort of special circumstance or specific feat they accomplished as well. 
  2. Wins Above Replacement - The general concept is fairly self-explanatory to those who pay attention to SABR metrics, but there are a couple of quick things that are worth noting in this space. First and foremost, the method of calculating WAR that Mini and I have developed is as customized to Hardball as possible (i.e., calibrated to an HBD run environment, incorporating HBD park factors, etc.) Secondly, Around The Horn will probably be our best reference point for what makes a Hall of Fame player in terms of WAR...I have been a member since Season 1 and also tracking WAR for the blog there the whole time. With one exception (a pitcher who was a no-brainer HOFer before the merger that created Around The Horn) everyone who has been elected to the Hall there had at least 43.9 WAR for their careers. 
  3. Hall of Fame Standards Test - Another Bill James metric, this one is on a 0-100 scale with a hard cap at 100 but in MLB Babe Ruth is only a 79 and the highest score in history is Christy Matthewson at 84. {NOTE: Babe Ruth the hitter was a 79, Babe Ruth the pitcher would combine to bring his total score over 100} I don't have any HBD reference for this, but the linked explainer says an "average Hall of Famer" would score 50 so I'd imagine that I would have a hard time voting for anyone who did not score at least 40 points. 
  4. Importance Score: This 2021 article by Mike Petrellio, ranking the best ever free-agent signings, is the origin of the metric I've come to call "Importance Score." It combines WAR per year with bonus points for winning WS Rings and individual awards, and since there are typically three camps in HOF voting (personal performance, "the ring is the thing", other hardware) this has always felt like the perfect blend of those three things. As a result, this has become my go-to HOF gauge when I have all of the pieces needed to calculate it (I've found that a score of 10.0 or higher is HOF quality and the highest score I've seen is 36.8, but that was a 9x Cy Young who also had multiple rings.) 
Typically if a player meets the standard on one of the above, they meet the standard on the majority if not all of them. The job of the committee in my experience, has been to do a bit of hair-splitting and decide which of those should be considered locks and which should be up for a world vote. 

At long last, let's examine the case of our first nominee: Aaron Cepicky. 
  • HOF Monitor Score: 5 points 
  • Wins Above Replacement: -3.68 through S4, S5 was probably positive but not 3.7 wins so he's almost certainly a net negative for his career 
  • HOF Standards: 21.9 points
    • 2 points for OBP, 19.9 for C defense  
  • Importance Score: Negative WAR, 0 MVP, 0 WS Rings, 0 seasons above 4 WAR = Negative Importance Score 
  • Conclusion: His one and only claim to fame is being the first guy on the ballot. But I'm for it, personally. 

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