Season 6 Draft Lottery

 After being quite late on the Season 5 Draft Order, the goal of this post is two fold: first, to establish the Draft Order for Season 6 and also to explain the logistics of the MWR using our first two examples. After consulting the committee, we have come to the conclusion that the penalty for missing the MWR will be dropping the lottery results of the missing team(s) by 10 spots. In other words, if the team that misses the MWR wins the lottery, they would pick 11th. 

All of this brings us to Step 1: assigning lottery odds. This is done entirely by end-of-season record regardless of whether or not the MWR was achieved. Based on the S5 win totals, we get the following:

Next is Step 2: conducting the actual lottery.  After consulting with minihouston about the lottery mechanisms and rules to make sure I had it right, he explained it in the following manner: "the top six picks are the true lottery, and then 7-16 go in the order like it usually does. The results of this year's ping-pong ball frenzy are below: 

Now comes the tricky part...making sure all of the rules put in place are followed an enforced. With a non-lottery team taking the #1 ping-pong ball, I have arranged the lottery teams in the order their ping pong balls appeared to get the following order: 

1. LOTTERY SLOT  (Boise 2)
2. LOTTERY SLOT (Louisville 4)
3. LOTTERY SLOT (Vancouver 5)
4. LOTTERY SLOT (Charlotte 6)
5. LOTTERY SLOT (Nashville 7)
6. LOTTERY SLOT (Arizona 8)
7. Texas
8. Tacoma
9. Philadelphia
10. Helena
11. Colorado Springs
12. Chicago
13. Durham
14. Portland
15. Baltimore
16. Los Angeles

However, as noted above Boise (#1 pick via lottery system) and Louisville (#2 pick via lottery system) will have their picks moved down 10 slots as MWR penalties. The adjusted draft order, therefore, is the following: 

1. Vancouver (#5 ping pong ball)
2. Charlotte (#6 ping pong ball)
3. Nashville (#7 ping pong ball)
4. Arizona (#8 ping pong ball) 
5. Tacoma (#1 ping pong ball)
6. Texas
7. Philadelphia 
8. Helena
9. Colorado Springs
10. Chicago
11. Boise (#1 ping pong ball with MWR penalty)
12. Louisville (#2 ping pong ball with MWR penalty) 
13. Durham
14. Portland
15. Baltimore
16. Los Angeles

This feels like a fair result as it rewards the non-lottery team who won the ping-pong ball draw (Tacoma) by moving up their pick up to the first spot after the lottery teams and penalizes the two teams who missed the MWR while still providing them a chance to draft a player who will be a useful piece of a rebuild without being an instant-MVP type (for reference Dan Romero and Macbeth Carpenter went 11th and 12th in the Season 1 Hardball Stitches draft.) 

Season 5 Draft Lottery

 At long last: the Draft Lottery has run! After many real-life delays and then several technical glitches, we finally have our Season 5 Amateur Draft Order. A few points of order and clarification on the logistics of how we got here. First of all, Bob and I returned to the original post made by minihouston explaining how this lottery is supposed to work, outlined in the following post from Season 2: 

In short: Compensation picks stay where they are, and the top six picks are semi-protected from the lottery (meaning they can pick no worse than six spots lower than their intended slot.) So, now we get down to the business of figuring out what the Draft Spreadsheet says the order is supposed to be so we can figure out what tweaks need to be made to adhere to the rules outlined above. Here's the screenrecording of the sheet generating the order: 

Based on these two data points, here's how the first round and Supplemental Round finally shake out: 

1. Charlotte 
2. Helena
3. Arizona
4. Boise
5. Durham
6. Vancouver
7. Tacoma
8. Colorado Springs
9. Louisville
10. Philadelphia
11. Portland
12. Rochester
13. Los Angeles
14. Chicago
15. Cincinnati
16. Helena (via Type D Compensation for Kevin Braden) **2nd pick**
17. New York 
18. Texas
19. Mexico City
20. Nashville
21. Buffalo
22. Kansas City
23. New Orleans
24. Texas **2nd pick**
25. Fresno
26. Baltimore
27. Tucson
28. San Antonio 
29. Tacoma **2nd pick**
30. Syracuse
31. Trenton
32. Trenton **2nd pick**
33. Boston
34. Texas **3rd pick**
35. Charlotte **2nd pick**
36. Tacoma  **3rd pick**
37. New York **2nd pick**
38. Texas **4th pick**
39. Tucson **2nd pick**
40. Trenton **3rd pick**
41. Tucson **3rd pick**
42. Tucson **4th pick**
43. Charlotte **3rd pick**
44. Durham **2nd pick**
45. Colorado Springs **2nd pick**
46. Philadelphia **2nd pick**
47. Portland **2nd pick**
48. Los Angeles **2nd pick**
49. New York **3rd pick**
50. Texas **5th pick**
51. Nashville **2nd pick**
52. New Orleans **2nd pick**
53. Fresno **2nd pick**
54. Baltimore **2nd pick**
55. Fargo
56. Charlotte **4th pick**
57. Fargo **2nd pick**

Season 5 First Quarter Power Rankings

 We are just over 25% of the way through Season 5 here in Hardball Stitches, so it's time to make our first check of the Quarterly Power Rankings to see where everyone stands as the league prepares to look towards the future and get their draft boards ready. In keeping with mini's tradition, this post will feature three sections: first, the power rankings (which are based on hitting and pitching statistics). Second will be a look the Expected Win Percentages/a comparison with the current win percentages and finally (and hopefully shortly) a look at teams who are on MWR watch for this season. 

Who is Under/Over Performing? Referencing Expected Win Percentages

• Boston 0.760 ExpWin% (0.756 Actual) **AL EAST LEADER**
• St. Louis 0.742 ExpWin% (0.683 Actual) **NL EAST LEADER**
• Montgomery 0.727 ExpWin% (0.683 Actual) **AL SOUTH LEADER**
• Fresno 0.647 ExpWin% (0.571 Actual) 
• Trenton 0.641 ExpWin% (0.683 Actual)  **NL NORTH LEADER**
• Tucson 0.622 ExpWin% (0.595 Actual) **NL WEST LEADER**
• Fargo 0.581 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual) **AL NORTH LEADER**
• Kansas City 0.580 ExpWin% (0.634 Actual) **NL WC2**
• Syracuse 0.537 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual)
• New York 0.526 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual) **AL WC2**
• New Orleans 0.522 ExpWin% (0.585 Actual) **AL WC1**
• Rochester 0.517 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual) 
• Durham 0.506 ExpWin% (0.512 Actual)
• Cincinnati 0.500 ExpWin% (0.610 Actual) **NL WC1**
• Texas 0.498 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual)
• Helena 0.495 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual) 
• Buffalo 0.487 ExpWin% (0.439 Actual) 
• Portland 0.481 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual)
• Colorado Springs 0.475 ExpWin (0.500 Actual) 
• Baltimore 0.475 ExpWin% (0.488 Actual)
• Philadelphia 0.473 ExpWin% (0.488 Actual)
• Mexico City 0.461 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual) **NL SOUTH LEADER**
• Los Angeles 0.458 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual) **AL WEST LEADER**
• Tacoma 0.449 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual)
• San Antonio 0.449 ExpWin% (0.415 Actual) 
• Arizona 0.420 ExpWin% (0.341 Actual)
• Boise 0.387 ExpWin% (0.381 Actual) 
• Louisville 0.373 ExpWin% (0.293 Actual) 
• Charlotte 0.325 ExpWin% (0.366 Actual) 
• Chicago 0.325 ExpWin% (0.317 Actual)
• Nashville 0.297 ExpWin% (0.317 Actual)  
• Vancouver 0.220 ExpWin% (0.317 Actual) 

The Dreaded List

• Louisville: 0.293 Win% = 47 win pace
• Vancouver: 0.317 Win% = 51 win pace
• Nashville: 0.317 Win% = 51 win pace
• Chicago: 0.317 Win% = 51 win pace

Season 4 Recap

Archers not stopped, but temporarily contained 

Last season we posed the question of whether or not there was a dynasty being formed in St. Louis. This year, I don't think there's any doubt about it: "the d word" is definitely in play...they've been to each of the first four World Series in Hardball Stitches history. Let us not forget, however: the title did not return to the city of arches. Instead, it travelled northward to the Queen City of the Prarie thanks to their Mud Dogs after they took down St. Louis in an entertaining World Series matchup. Now let's dig into the details of what happened last season: 

All-Star Weekend: Data not recorded 😥

American League

Division Titles 

• AL North: Fargo (1st)
• AL East: Boston (4th straight)
• AL Central: Montgomery (1st)
• AL West: Los Angeles (1st) 

Wild Cards

• Syracuase: 1st WC, 4th playoff appearance 
• Baltimore: 1st playoff appearance

National League

Division Titles

• NL North: Trenton (4th straight)
• NL East: St. Louis (4th straight)
• NL Central: San Antonio (2nd straight)
• NL West: Tucson (1st)

Wild Cards

• Fresno: 1st WC, 3rd playoff appearance 
• Indianapolis {now Kansas City}: 4th straight WC appearance

League Leaders: Data not recorded 😥

Awards

AL MVP: Matt Roberts (LF-Baltimore), 1st career MVP Award

NL MVP: Matthew Corey (1B-Tucson), 2nd straight MVP Award (2nd overall as well) 

AL Cy Young: Glenallen Cepicky (SP-Boston), 1st career Cy Young Award

NL Cy Young: Tex Richardson (SP-St. Louis), 1st career Cy Young Award

AL Rookie of the Year: Gerrit Martin (DH-Texas)

NL Rookie of the Year: Chan Iwamura (RP-Cincinnati)

AL Fireman of the Year: Jose Rios (RP-New Orleans), 2nd straight FOY Award (3rd overall) 

NL Fireman of the Year: David Gonzales (RP-Cincinnati), 1st career FOY Award

Minor Leagues

AAA

• World Series: Philadelphia def. Buffalo 4-2 (1st AAA title)
• Best Record: Los Angeles (98-46)
• Worst Record: Louisville (30-114)

AA

• World Series: Scottsdale {now Boise} def. Texas 4-1 (3rd AA title)
• Best Record: Scottsdale (99-45)
• Worst Record: Arizona (34-110)

High A 

• World Series: Fargo def. Charlotte 4-2 (1st HiA title)
• Best Record: Fargo (93-51)
• Worst Record: Louisville (29-115) 

Low A

• World Series: Nashville def. Boston 4-0 (1st LoA title)
• Best Record: Charlotte (111-33)
• Worst Record: Arizona (30-114)

Rookie

• World Series: Montgomery def. Nashville 4-2 (1st RL title)
• Best Record: Charlotte (65-11)
• Worst Record: St. Louis (8-68)

I owe our readers an apology.

Somewhere between deadlines, domestic distractions, and a little too much enthusiasm for the All-Star Weekend festivities, I let the important things slip—namely, the complete data collection for the All-Star recap and the league leader sections of this season review.

In my defense (a weak one, I admit), the lights were bright, the games were loud, the celebrations were plentiful, and for a brief, ill-advised stretch, I convinced myself I could circle back and gather the numbers later. That confidence, like many late-night decisions, proved misplaced.

Personal matters demanded attention. The weekend demanded indulgence. And the spreadsheets, regrettably, were left waiting.

This article reflects the season as it was lived—intense, unpredictable, occasionally chaotic—but it falls short of the statistical completeness you deserve. For that, I take full responsibility and promise that future recaps will show better discipline, fewer distractions, and a much healthier respect for both data and moderation.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’ll be returning to my notes—wide awake, clear-headed, and determined to keep the fun firmly in check next time.

— Jack Torrance, Contributor

Name That Player (and help a friend!)

  Hello Hive Mind!

The blog is returning with a new feature: interactive feedback. Before we get to the interactive portion, a little background is needed. IRL, I am a Special Education teacher tasked with teaching executive functioning skills to middle schoolers with ADHD. Being a former ADHD middle school boy myself, I know those kinds of lessons can be rather boring sometimes...and then when I was reading a WIS box score at lunch one day it hit me: I can use this site to my advantage to sneak executive functioning skills into things they view as just a big game. 

The premise: They get to start a franchise in the sport of their choice from scratch and be owner/GM/all other things (except players.) I will then use the Dream Team feature of WIS to make their dreams a reality and make them carry out the tasks of the various roles as we go and "accidentally" practice the executive functioning skills along the way. I started by having them choose a name and location for their teams, then asked them to pick their ideal starting lineups using any combination of players they wanted. 

Most of them understood the assignment, chose real athletes and I'll be able to set their teams up over the holiday break. A few got a little confused...and one student in particular fielded a baseball team that gave me a few good laughs and finally brings us to the interactive portion of today's post. The lineup and justifications for the student's selections are as follows: 

• Catcher-Helen Keller "because she'd offer good support"
• First Base- Taiki Shuttle (the horse) "because he's also a good runner" 
• Second Base- Hatsune Miku (the Japanese musical artist) "because they're a good runner" 
• Third Base-Big Papi ("A legend") 
• Shortstop-Stone Cold Steve Austin ("because he tackles the other team") 
• Outfield-Fredrick Douglas ("he would like it")
• Outfield-{her Middle School English Teacher} ("he's probably good") 
• Outfield-Dr. Gregory House ("to insult the other team") 
• Pitcher-Tractor Supply Manager...Just One Guy (no reason given) 
• Pitcher-Myself ("I was good at pitching") NOTE: she's a small caucasian female, currently in 9th grade

The interactive piece is that I need the help of this community to brainstorm actual players I can put into WIS' Dream Team in order to simulate games for this most glorious and entertaining of squads. My goal is to match personalities as closely as possible to the provided descriptions (ie Miku would ideally be an Asian player known for speed etc.) Let the brainstorming begin, and send me your thoughts via Trade Chat, Sitemail or simply post in World Chat 😀

Heat Check: Season 3 Edition

This is the third installment in the Heat Check series, where we check in on how successful franchises have been using a thermometer as our reference scale. The short version of how this is calculated is that teams earn points for winning seasons and postseason success and teams with losing records stay the same...and then everyone goes a little backwards between the last out of the World Series and the first long toss of Spring Training because even virtual baseball players deserve some time off and get a little rusty.  The longer version, including the formulas and the inspiration for this series, can be found here. Without further ado, let's see how everyone is doing with two seasons of data to work with: 

Boiling Hot (Above 212*F/100*C or better)

Steamy (Above 100*F/37.8*C)

• Trenton: Started S2 @ 86.3*, won 106 games + Division Title + Pennant, starts S3 @ 102*F
• Syracuse: Started S2 @ 75.7* won 111 games, Division Title + WS Ring, starts S3 @ 101.5*F  

Warm (Above Room Temperature, aka 72*F/?*C)

• St. Louis: Started S2 @ 95.4*, won 111 games + Division Title, starts S3 @ 96.7*F
• Texas: started S2 @ 83.6*F, won 84 games + made playoffs, starts S3 @ 80.5*F
• Boston: Started S2 @ 75.7*F, won 119 games + Division Title, starts S3 @ 78.8*F (214 wins all time) 
• New Orleans: Started S2 @ 75.7*, won 106 games + Division Title, starts S3 @ 78.8*F (202 wins all time)

Cool (Below Room Temperature, aka 72*F/?*C)

• Fresno: Started S2 @ 70*, won 83 games & made playoffs, starts S3 @ 71.1*F
• Indianapolis: Started @ 70*, won 97 games + made playoffs, starts S3 @ 70.8*F
• Buffalo: Started @ 70*, won 91 games + made playoffs, starts S3 @ 68.1*F (181 wins all time)
• Chicago (NL): Started S2 @ 70*, won 88 games & missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 68.1*F (173 wins all time)
• Mexico City: Started S2 @ 65.4*, won 88 games & made playoffs, starts S3 @ 67*F
• Salt Lake City: Started S2 @ 73*F, won 81 games + made playoffs, starts S3 @ 66.3*F (169 wins all time)
• Scottsdale: Starts S2 @ 73*, won 74 games & missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 66.3*F (163 wins all time)
• Charlotte: Started S2 @ 73*, won 67 games & missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 66.3*F (155 wins all time)
• Montgomery: Started S2 @ 65.4*, won 88 games + made playoffs, starts S3 @ 64.0*F (168 wins all time)
• San Antonio: Started S2 @ 65.4*, won 86 games & missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 64.0*F (162 wins all time)
• Durham: Started @ 65.4*F, won 83 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 64.0*F (159 wins all time)
• Tacoma: Started S2 @ 70*, won 78 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 63.6*F (166 wins all time)
• Baltimore: Started S2 @ 70*, won 70 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 63.6*F (162 wins all time)
• Tucson: Started S2 @ 65.4*F, won 80 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (157 wins all time)
• Fargo: Started S2 @ 65.4*F, won 80 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (155 wins all time) 
• New York: Started S2, won 77 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (148 wins all time)
• Arizona: Started S2 @ 65.4*F, won 66 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (143 wins all time)
• Rochester: Started @ 65.4*F, won 65 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (138 wins all time)
• Helena: Started @ 65.4*F, won 65 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (136 wins all time); Vancouver: Started S2 @ 65.4*F,  won 65 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (136 wins all time)
• Philadelphia: Started S2 @ 65.4*F, won 61 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (134 wins all time) & Louisville: Started S2 @ 65.4*F, won 67 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (134 wins all time)
• Colorado Springs: Started S2 @ 65.4*F, won 58 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (129 wins all time) 
• Cincinnati: Started @ 65.4*F, won 62 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (122 wins all time)
• Los Angeles: Started @ 65.4*F, won 61 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (117 wins all time)
• Nashville: Started @ 65.4*F, won 57 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (114 wins all time) 

Freezing Cold (Below 32*F/0*C)

Absolutely Frigid (Below 0*F/-17.8*C)