Season 5 First Quarter Power Rankings

 We are just over 25% of the way through Season 5 here in Hardball Stitches, so it's time to make our first check of the Quarterly Power Rankings to see where everyone stands as the league prepares to look towards the future and get their draft boards ready. In keeping with mini's tradition, this post will feature three sections: first, the power rankings (which are based on hitting and pitching statistics). Second will be a look the Expected Win Percentages/a comparison with the current win percentages and finally (and hopefully shortly) a look at teams who are on MWR watch for this season. 

Who is Under/Over Performing? Referencing Expected Win Percentages

• Boston 0.760 ExpWin% (0.756 Actual) **AL EAST LEADER**
• St. Louis 0.742 ExpWin% (0.683 Actual) **NL EAST LEADER**
• Montgomery 0.727 ExpWin% (0.683 Actual) **AL SOUTH LEADER**
• Fresno 0.647 ExpWin% (0.571 Actual) 
• Trenton 0.641 ExpWin% (0.683 Actual)  **NL NORTH LEADER**
• Tucson 0.622 ExpWin% (0.595 Actual) **NL WEST LEADER**
• Fargo 0.581 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual) **AL NORTH LEADER**
• Kansas City 0.580 ExpWin% (0.634 Actual) **NL WC2**
• Syracuse 0.537 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual)
• New York 0.526 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual) **AL WC2**
• New Orleans 0.522 ExpWin% (0.585 Actual) **AL WC1**
• Rochester 0.517 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual) 
• Durham 0.506 ExpWin% (0.512 Actual)
• Cincinnati 0.500 ExpWin% (0.610 Actual) **NL WC1**
• Texas 0.498 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual)
• Helena 0.495 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual) 
• Buffalo 0.487 ExpWin% (0.439 Actual) 
• Portland 0.481 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual)
• Colorado Springs 0.475 ExpWin (0.500 Actual) 
• Baltimore 0.475 ExpWin% (0.488 Actual)
• Philadelphia 0.473 ExpWin% (0.488 Actual)
• Mexico City 0.461 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual) **NL SOUTH LEADER**
• Los Angeles 0.458 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual) **AL WEST LEADER**
• Tacoma 0.449 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual)
• San Antonio 0.449 ExpWin% (0.415 Actual) 
• Arizona 0.420 ExpWin% (0.341 Actual)
• Boise 0.387 ExpWin% (0.381 Actual) 
• Louisville 0.373 ExpWin% (0.293 Actual) 
• Charlotte 0.325 ExpWin% (0.366 Actual) 
• Chicago 0.325 ExpWin% (0.317 Actual)
• Nashville 0.297 ExpWin% (0.317 Actual)  
• Vancouver 0.220 ExpWin% (0.317 Actual) 

The Dreaded List

• Louisville: 0.293 Win% = 47 win pace
• Vancouver: 0.317 Win% = 51 win pace
• Nashville: 0.317 Win% = 51 win pace
• Chicago: 0.317 Win% = 51 win pace

Season 4 Recap

Archers not stopped, but temporarily contained 

Last season we posed the question of whether or not there was a dynasty being formed in St. Louis. This year, I don't think there's any doubt about it: "the d word" is definitely in play...they've been to each of the first four World Series in Hardball Stitches history. Let us not forget, however: the title did not return to the city of arches. Instead, it travelled northward to the Queen City of the Prarie thanks to their Mud Dogs after they took down St. Louis in an entertaining World Series matchup. Now let's dig into the details of what happened last season: 

All-Star Weekend: Data not recorded 😥

American League

Division Titles 

• AL North: Fargo (1st)
• AL East: Boston (4th straight)
• AL Central: Montgomery (1st)
• AL West: Los Angeles (1st) 

Wild Cards

• Syracuase: 1st WC, 4th playoff appearance 
• Baltimore: 1st playoff appearance

National League

Division Titles

• NL North: Trenton (4th straight)
• NL East: St. Louis (4th straight)
• NL Central: San Antonio (2nd straight)
• NL West: Tucson (1st)

Wild Cards

• Fresno: 1st WC, 3rd playoff appearance 
• Indianapolis {now Kansas City}: 4th straight WC appearance

League Leaders: Data not recorded 😥

Awards

AL MVP: Matt Roberts (LF-Baltimore), 1st career MVP Award

NL MVP: Matthew Corey (1B-Tucson), 2nd straight MVP Award (2nd overall as well) 

AL Cy Young: Glenallen Cepicky (SP-Boston), 1st career Cy Young Award

NL Cy Young: Tex Richardson (SP-St. Louis), 1st career Cy Young Award

AL Rookie of the Year: Gerrit Martin (DH-Texas)

NL Rookie of the Year: Chan Iwamura (RP-Cincinnati)

AL Fireman of the Year: Jose Rios (RP-New Orleans), 2nd straight FOY Award (3rd overall) 

NL Fireman of the Year: David Gonzales (RP-Cincinnati), 1st career FOY Award

Minor Leagues

AAA

• World Series: Philadelphia def. Buffalo 4-2 (1st AAA title)
• Best Record: Los Angeles (98-46)
• Worst Record: Louisville (30-114)

AA

• World Series: Scottsdale {now Boise} def. Texas 4-1 (3rd AA title)
• Best Record: Scottsdale (99-45)
• Worst Record: Arizona (34-110)

High A 

• World Series: Fargo def. Charlotte 4-2 (1st HiA title)
• Best Record: Fargo (93-51)
• Worst Record: Louisville (29-115) 

Low A

• World Series: Nashville def. Boston 4-0 (1st LoA title)
• Best Record: Charlotte (111-33)
• Worst Record: Arizona (30-114)

Rookie

• World Series: Montgomery def. Nashville 4-2 (1st RL title)
• Best Record: Charlotte (65-11)
• Worst Record: St. Louis (8-68)

I owe our readers an apology.

Somewhere between deadlines, domestic distractions, and a little too much enthusiasm for the All-Star Weekend festivities, I let the important things slip—namely, the complete data collection for the All-Star recap and the league leader sections of this season review.

In my defense (a weak one, I admit), the lights were bright, the games were loud, the celebrations were plentiful, and for a brief, ill-advised stretch, I convinced myself I could circle back and gather the numbers later. That confidence, like many late-night decisions, proved misplaced.

Personal matters demanded attention. The weekend demanded indulgence. And the spreadsheets, regrettably, were left waiting.

This article reflects the season as it was lived—intense, unpredictable, occasionally chaotic—but it falls short of the statistical completeness you deserve. For that, I take full responsibility and promise that future recaps will show better discipline, fewer distractions, and a much healthier respect for both data and moderation.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’ll be returning to my notes—wide awake, clear-headed, and determined to keep the fun firmly in check next time.

— Jack Torrance, Contributor

Name That Player (and help a friend!)

  Hello Hive Mind!

The blog is returning with a new feature: interactive feedback. Before we get to the interactive portion, a little background is needed. IRL, I am a Special Education teacher tasked with teaching executive functioning skills to middle schoolers with ADHD. Being a former ADHD middle school boy myself, I know those kinds of lessons can be rather boring sometimes...and then when I was reading a WIS box score at lunch one day it hit me: I can use this site to my advantage to sneak executive functioning skills into things they view as just a big game. 

The premise: They get to start a franchise in the sport of their choice from scratch and be owner/GM/all other things (except players.) I will then use the Dream Team feature of WIS to make their dreams a reality and make them carry out the tasks of the various roles as we go and "accidentally" practice the executive functioning skills along the way. I started by having them choose a name and location for their teams, then asked them to pick their ideal starting lineups using any combination of players they wanted. 

Most of them understood the assignment, chose real athletes and I'll be able to set their teams up over the holiday break. A few got a little confused...and one student in particular fielded a baseball team that gave me a few good laughs and finally brings us to the interactive portion of today's post. The lineup and justifications for the student's selections are as follows: 

• Catcher-Helen Keller "because she'd offer good support"
• First Base- Taiki Shuttle (the horse) "because he's also a good runner" 
• Second Base- Hatsune Miku (the Japanese musical artist) "because they're a good runner" 
• Third Base-Big Papi ("A legend") 
• Shortstop-Stone Cold Steve Austin ("because he tackles the other team") 
• Outfield-Fredrick Douglas ("he would like it")
• Outfield-{her Middle School English Teacher} ("he's probably good") 
• Outfield-Dr. Gregory House ("to insult the other team") 
• Pitcher-Tractor Supply Manager...Just One Guy (no reason given) 
• Pitcher-Myself ("I was good at pitching") NOTE: she's a small caucasian female, currently in 9th grade

The interactive piece is that I need the help of this community to brainstorm actual players I can put into WIS' Dream Team in order to simulate games for this most glorious and entertaining of squads. My goal is to match personalities as closely as possible to the provided descriptions (ie Miku would ideally be an Asian player known for speed etc.) Let the brainstorming begin, and send me your thoughts via Trade Chat, Sitemail or simply post in World Chat 😀

Heat Check: Season 3 Edition

This is the third installment in the Heat Check series, where we check in on how successful franchises have been using a thermometer as our reference scale. The short version of how this is calculated is that teams earn points for winning seasons and postseason success and teams with losing records stay the same...and then everyone goes a little backwards between the last out of the World Series and the first long toss of Spring Training because even virtual baseball players deserve some time off and get a little rusty.  The longer version, including the formulas and the inspiration for this series, can be found here. Without further ado, let's see how everyone is doing with two seasons of data to work with: 

Boiling Hot (Above 212*F/100*C or better)

Steamy (Above 100*F/37.8*C)

• Trenton: Started S2 @ 86.3*, won 106 games + Division Title + Pennant, starts S3 @ 102*F
• Syracuse: Started S2 @ 75.7* won 111 games, Division Title + WS Ring, starts S3 @ 101.5*F  

Warm (Above Room Temperature, aka 72*F/?*C)

• St. Louis: Started S2 @ 95.4*, won 111 games + Division Title, starts S3 @ 96.7*F
• Texas: started S2 @ 83.6*F, won 84 games + made playoffs, starts S3 @ 80.5*F
• Boston: Started S2 @ 75.7*F, won 119 games + Division Title, starts S3 @ 78.8*F (214 wins all time) 
• New Orleans: Started S2 @ 75.7*, won 106 games + Division Title, starts S3 @ 78.8*F (202 wins all time)

Cool (Below Room Temperature, aka 72*F/?*C)

• Fresno: Started S2 @ 70*, won 83 games & made playoffs, starts S3 @ 71.1*F
• Indianapolis: Started @ 70*, won 97 games + made playoffs, starts S3 @ 70.8*F
• Buffalo: Started @ 70*, won 91 games + made playoffs, starts S3 @ 68.1*F (181 wins all time)
• Chicago (NL): Started S2 @ 70*, won 88 games & missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 68.1*F (173 wins all time)
• Mexico City: Started S2 @ 65.4*, won 88 games & made playoffs, starts S3 @ 67*F
• Salt Lake City: Started S2 @ 73*F, won 81 games + made playoffs, starts S3 @ 66.3*F (169 wins all time)
• Scottsdale: Starts S2 @ 73*, won 74 games & missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 66.3*F (163 wins all time)
• Charlotte: Started S2 @ 73*, won 67 games & missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 66.3*F (155 wins all time)
• Montgomery: Started S2 @ 65.4*, won 88 games + made playoffs, starts S3 @ 64.0*F (168 wins all time)
• San Antonio: Started S2 @ 65.4*, won 86 games & missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 64.0*F (162 wins all time)
• Durham: Started @ 65.4*F, won 83 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 64.0*F (159 wins all time)
• Tacoma: Started S2 @ 70*, won 78 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 63.6*F (166 wins all time)
• Baltimore: Started S2 @ 70*, won 70 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 63.6*F (162 wins all time)
• Tucson: Started S2 @ 65.4*F, won 80 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (157 wins all time)
• Fargo: Started S2 @ 65.4*F, won 80 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (155 wins all time) 
• New York: Started S2, won 77 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (148 wins all time)
• Arizona: Started S2 @ 65.4*F, won 66 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (143 wins all time)
• Rochester: Started @ 65.4*F, won 65 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (138 wins all time)
• Helena: Started @ 65.4*F, won 65 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (136 wins all time); Vancouver: Started S2 @ 65.4*F,  won 65 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (136 wins all time)
• Philadelphia: Started S2 @ 65.4*F, won 61 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (134 wins all time) & Louisville: Started S2 @ 65.4*F, won 67 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (134 wins all time)
• Colorado Springs: Started S2 @ 65.4*F, won 58 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (129 wins all time) 
• Cincinnati: Started @ 65.4*F, won 62 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (122 wins all time)
• Los Angeles: Started @ 65.4*F, won 61 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (117 wins all time)
• Nashville: Started @ 65.4*F, won 57 games + missed playoffs, starts S3 @ 59.4*F (114 wins all time) 

Freezing Cold (Below 32*F/0*C)

Absolutely Frigid (Below 0*F/-17.8*C)

S4 Initial Power Rankings

Richard Castle - contributing reporter

Ladies and gentlemen, baseball romantics, and those of you who read these rankings purely out of spite—welcome back. It’s been a while, hasn’t it? Long enough that I half-expected to return and find the league replaced by robots, scandals, or a shocking midseason plot twist involving identical twins. But no—Hardball Stitches is alive, dramatic as ever, and finally ready to unveil the very first power rankings of Season 4.

Now, early-season rankings are a bit like first chapters: wildly misleading, full of red herrings, and guaranteed to break someone’s heart by page ten. But that’s the fun of it. New contenders rise from the shadows, old favorites stumble out of the gate, and at least one team inevitably insists, “We’re better than our record.” Sure, and I’m a quiet, subtle writer who hates attention.

But enough preamble. The scene is set, the suspects are assembled, and the plot is already thickening faster than a New York cheesecake. So grab your magnifying glass—or your popcorn. Season 4’s story begins now, and trust me… you’re going to want to read every word.

• Best Record
• Fargo Mud Dogs
• 2nd Best
• Baltimore IronBirds & Trenton Thunderbolts
• 3rd Best
• Boston Act As If Afflects
• 4th Best
• St Louis Archers
• 5th Best
• Syracuse Firebirds & Texas Toast

But for now, let's talk about expected wins - or, in other words, how teams SHOULD be playing. Are some squads punching above their weight class? Are others underperforming like a blockbuster flop? Time to separate reality from illusion. 

.736 - Trenton Thunderbolts (NL-N Champ)

.679 - Boston 'Act As If' Afflects (AL Wildcard 1) & Baltimore IronBirds (AL-E Champ)

.675 - Fargo Mud Dogs (AL-N Champ)

.629 - St. Louis Archers (NL-E Champ)

.609 - Texas Toast (AL-S Champ)

.600 - Chicago Northsiders (NL Wildcard 1)

.583 - Buffalo Bomb Squad & Montgomery Fightins

.541 - Syracuse Firebirds (AL Wildcard 2)

.540 - Tucson Road Runners (NL-W Champ)

.536 - San Antonio Yo-Yo Bros Yo (NL Wildcard 2)

.512 - Cincinnati Redlegs

.495 - Fresno Romans

.493 - Mexico City Luchadors

.491 - New Orleans Voodoo

.489 - Tacoma Armada 

.485 - Vancouver Blue Heron

.477 - New York Pizza Rats

.467 - Colorado Springs Ranchers

.463 - Durham Corgis

.462 - Indianapolis Speedsters 

.458 - Nashville Hot (NL-S Champ)

.426 - Philadelphia Hooligans

.411 - Rochester Mighty Flour Mills

.398 - Los Angeles Labradors (AL-W Champ)

.391 - Scottsdale Sazeracs

.378 - Louisville Bourbon Chasers

.362 - Helena Highlanders

.352 - Salt Lake City Trappers

.324 - Arizona Canyon Kings

.316 - Charlotte Intimidators 

The dreaded list

 
Team                            On Pace Wins    Expect Win %

Salt Lake City Trappers       45 W                57 W

Arizona Canyon Kings        53 W                53 W

S4 The Six-Tier Mirage: Dispatches from the International Frontier

Eli Cash - contributing reporter

I was sitting in a hotel bar in Santo Domingo when the first whispers came through the ceiling fan — the kind of whispers that smell like ambition and motor oil. Six tiers. Six layers of the economic afterlife. A new system to measure what a team can spend on hope, or at least the version of hope that throws ninety-seven and can hit a curveball in the dark. The bartender told me the tiers were supposed to make things “fair.” I told him fairness is a rumor spread by accountants.

Tier One rides tall — these are the desert kings, the oil scions, the men who believe the world was built so they could sign it. Their checkbooks glint like machetes in the sun. They don’t scout — they summon. You can almost hear the laughter of the gods when they announce a $5 million bonus for a kid who hasn’t yet learned to shave. I envy them in the way one might envy a thunderstorm: destructive, inevitable, and somehow poetic.

Indianapolis 

Tier Two is not so rich in blood or gold, but they still carry a certain nobility — like the second son of a forgotten dynasty, sipping flat champagne in the shadow of empire. These teams still dream big, but they have to dream clever. They talk about “market inefficiencies” as if that’s a kind of faith. I’ve seen their scouts sleeping in airports, translating potential into per diem receipts. There’s a sadness in it, but also a kind of quiet art.

Charlotte

Salt Lake City

Fresno

Tier Three lives in the gray — what I call the philosophical middle class of baseball. They can afford to gamble, but only on a horse that’s already half-broken. These are the teams who find poetry in the waiver wire, who believe every $600,000 shortstop from Caracas might just be the key to eternal life. I respect their delusion. I share it.

Tacoma

Philadelphia

Helena

Baltimore

Arizona

Durham

Vancouver

Tier Four is where the mirage starts to fade. They wander the same desert as the rest, but their canteens are dry. You’ll hear their GMs talk about “development focus,” “internal growth,” and “strategic restraint.” I’ve used all those phrases myself, usually right before my editor stops returning calls. They don’t buy players — they rent dreams. Sometimes the dreams come due. Usually they don’t.

Cincinnati

Rochester

Scottsdale

Colorado Springs

Texas

Tier Five… well, these are the haunted ones. They’re the teams whose fax machines still hum with regret. They know the numbers, the limitations, the futility of their chase, and yet they show up at the market anyway — like a man showing up to a duel with a pocketknife and a poem. I admire their courage, though it often looks like confusion. Somewhere deep down, they must believe that destiny still accepts credit.

Chicago

Boston

Tucson

Trenton

Nashville

Los Angeles

Montgomery

New York

Louisville

And then there’s Tier Six. The forgotten pilgrims. The ones who watch the whole show from the cheap seats of history. Their budgets are smaller than the tip line at Tier One’s team dinner. Yet somehow, they persist — the monks of the market, trading faith instead of funds. Maybe they’ll find a kid out there who doesn’t care about money, just the smell of leather and red dirt. Maybe they won’t. Either way, they’ll tell themselves it’s noble.

Buffalo

San Antonio

New Orleans

Mexico City

Fargo

St Louis

Syracuse

Because that’s the trick, isn’t it? The market isn’t about money — it’s about mythology. Every team believes it’s building a legend. Every scout believes he’s found a ghost. Every general manager thinks he’s outsmarted gravity. But in the end, they all wake up in the same heat, under the same sky, staring at the same mirage that keeps the whole thing moving.

I left the bar that night and walked out into the alley behind the stadium. A kid was throwing a ball against a rusted fence — barefoot, balanced on dreams alone. I asked him what tier he thought he belonged to. He shrugged and said, “The one that signs me.”

Maybe that’s the only truth there is. The tiers are just scaffolding. The rest is dust and destiny.