Season 5 Draft Lottery

 At long last: the Draft Lottery has run! After many real-life delays and then several technical glitches, we finally have our Season 5 Amateur Draft Order. A few points of order and clarification on the logistics of how we got here. First of all, Bob and I returned to the original post made by minihouston explaining how this lottery is supposed to work, outlined in the following post from Season 2: 



In short: Compensation picks stay where they are, and the top six picks are semi-protected from the lottery (meaning they can pick no worse than six spots lower than their intended slot.) So, now we get down to the business of figuring out what the Draft Spreadsheet says the order is supposed to be so we can figure out what tweaks need to be made to adhere to the rules outlined above. Here's the screenrecording of the sheet generating the order: 


Based on these two data points, here's how the first round and Supplemental Round finally shake out: 

  1. Charlotte 
  2. Helena
  3. Arizona
  4. Boise
  5. Durham
  6. Vancouver
  7. Tacoma
  8. Colorado Springs
  9. Louisville
  10. Philadelphia
  11. Portland
  12. Rochester
  13. Los Angeles
  14. Chicago
  15. Cincinnati
  16. Helena (via Type D Compensation for Kevin Braden) **2nd pick**
  17. New York 
  18. Texas
  19. Mexico City
  20. Nashville
  21. Buffalo
  22. Kansas City
  23. New Orleans
  24. Texas **2nd pick**
  25. Fresno
  26. Baltimore
  27. Tucson
  28. San Antonio 
  29. Tacoma **2nd pick**
  30. Syracuse
  31. Trenton
  32. Trenton **2nd pick**
  33. Boston
  34. Texas **3rd pick**
  35. Charlotte **2nd pick**
  36. Tacoma  **3rd pick**
  37. New York **2nd pick**
  38. Texas **4th pick**
  39. Tucson **2nd pick**
  40. Trenton **3rd pick**
  41. Tucson **3rd pick**
  42. Tucson **4th pick**
  43. Charlotte **3rd pick**
  44. Durham **2nd pick**
  45. Colorado Springs **2nd pick**
  46. Philadelphia **2nd pick**
  47. Portland **2nd pick**
  48. Los Angeles **2nd pick**
  49. New York **3rd pick**
  50. Texas **5th pick**
  51. Nashville **2nd pick**
  52. New Orleans **2nd pick**
  53. Fresno **2nd pick**
  54. Baltimore **2nd pick**
  55. Fargo
  56. Charlotte **4th pick**
  57. Fargo **2nd pick**

Season 5 First Quarter Power Rankings

 We are just over 25% of the way through Season 5 here in Hardball Stitches, so it's time to make our first check of the Quarterly Power Rankings to see where everyone stands as the league prepares to look towards the future and get their draft boards ready. In keeping with mini's tradition, this post will feature three sections: first, the power rankings (which are based on hitting and pitching statistics). Second will be a look the Expected Win Percentages/a comparison with the current win percentages and finally (and hopefully shortly) a look at teams who are on MWR watch for this season. 

Who is Under/Over Performing? Referencing Expected Win Percentages

  • Boston 0.760 ExpWin% (0.756 Actual) **AL EAST LEADER**
  • St. Louis 0.742 ExpWin% (0.683 Actual) **NL EAST LEADER**
  • Montgomery 0.727 ExpWin% (0.683 Actual) **AL SOUTH LEADER**
  • Fresno 0.647 ExpWin% (0.571 Actual) 
  • Trenton 0.641 ExpWin% (0.683 Actual)  **NL NORTH LEADER**
  • Tucson 0.622 ExpWin% (0.595 Actual) **NL WEST LEADER**
  • Fargo 0.581 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual) **AL NORTH LEADER**
  • Kansas City 0.580 ExpWin% (0.634 Actual) **NL WC2**
  • Syracuse 0.537 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual)
  • New York 0.526 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual) **AL WC2**
  • New Orleans 0.522 ExpWin% (0.585 Actual) **AL WC1**
  • Rochester 0.517 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual) 
  • Durham 0.506 ExpWin% (0.512 Actual)
  • Cincinnati 0.500 ExpWin% (0.610 Actual) **NL WC1**
  • Texas 0.498 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual)
  • Helena 0.495 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual) 
  • Buffalo 0.487 ExpWin% (0.439 Actual) 
  • Portland 0.481 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual)
  • Colorado Springs 0.475 ExpWin (0.500 Actual) 
  • Baltimore 0.475 ExpWin% (0.488 Actual)
  • Philadelphia 0.473 ExpWin% (0.488 Actual)
  • Mexico City 0.461 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual) **NL SOUTH LEADER**
  • Los Angeles 0.458 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual) **AL WEST LEADER**
  • Tacoma 0.449 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual)
  • San Antonio 0.449 ExpWin% (0.415 Actual) 
  • Arizona 0.420 ExpWin% (0.341 Actual)
  • Boise 0.387 ExpWin% (0.381 Actual) 
  • Louisville 0.373 ExpWin% (0.293 Actual) 
  • Charlotte 0.325 ExpWin% (0.366 Actual) 
  • Chicago 0.325 ExpWin% (0.317 Actual)
  • Nashville 0.297 ExpWin% (0.317 Actual)  
  • Vancouver 0.220 ExpWin% (0.317 Actual) 

The Dreaded List

  • Louisville: 0.293 Win% = 47 win pace
  • Vancouver: 0.317 Win% = 51 win pace
  • Nashville: 0.317 Win% = 51 win pace
  • Chicago: 0.317 Win% = 51 win pace