Season 5 Draft Lottery

 At long last: the Draft Lottery has run! After many real-life delays and then several technical glitches, we finally have our Season 5 Amateur Draft Order. A few points of order and clarification on the logistics of how we got here. First of all, Bob and I returned to the original post made by minihouston explaining how this lottery is supposed to work, outlined in the following post from Season 2: 



In short: Compensation picks stay where they are, and the top six picks are semi-protected from the lottery (meaning they can pick no worse than six spots lower than their intended slot.) So, now we get down to the business of figuring out what the Draft Spreadsheet says the order is supposed to be so we can figure out what tweaks need to be made to adhere to the rules outlined above. Here's the screenrecording of the sheet generating the order: 


Based on these two data points, here's how the first round and Supplemental Round finally shake out: 

  1. Charlotte 
  2. Helena
  3. Arizona
  4. Boise
  5. Durham
  6. Vancouver
  7. Tacoma
  8. Colorado Springs
  9. Louisville
  10. Philadelphia
  11. Portland
  12. Rochester
  13. Los Angeles
  14. Chicago
  15. Cincinnati
  16. Helena (via Type D Compensation for Kevin Braden) **2nd pick**
  17. New York 
  18. Texas
  19. Mexico City
  20. Nashville
  21. Buffalo
  22. Kansas City
  23. New Orleans
  24. Texas **2nd pick**
  25. Fresno
  26. Baltimore
  27. Tucson
  28. San Antonio 
  29. Tacoma **2nd pick**
  30. Syracuse
  31. Trenton
  32. Trenton **2nd pick**
  33. Boston
  34. Texas **3rd pick**
  35. Charlotte **2nd pick**
  36. Tacoma  **3rd pick**
  37. New York **2nd pick**
  38. Texas **4th pick**
  39. Tucson **2nd pick**
  40. Trenton **3rd pick**
  41. Tucson **3rd pick**
  42. Tucson **4th pick**
  43. Charlotte **3rd pick**
  44. Durham **2nd pick**
  45. Colorado Springs **2nd pick**
  46. Philadelphia **2nd pick**
  47. Portland **2nd pick**
  48. Los Angeles **2nd pick**
  49. New York **3rd pick**
  50. Texas **5th pick**
  51. Nashville **2nd pick**
  52. New Orleans **2nd pick**
  53. Fresno **2nd pick**
  54. Baltimore **2nd pick**
  55. Fargo
  56. Charlotte **4th pick**
  57. Fargo **2nd pick**

Season 5 First Quarter Power Rankings

 We are just over 25% of the way through Season 5 here in Hardball Stitches, so it's time to make our first check of the Quarterly Power Rankings to see where everyone stands as the league prepares to look towards the future and get their draft boards ready. In keeping with mini's tradition, this post will feature three sections: first, the power rankings (which are based on hitting and pitching statistics). Second will be a look the Expected Win Percentages/a comparison with the current win percentages and finally (and hopefully shortly) a look at teams who are on MWR watch for this season. 

Who is Under/Over Performing? Referencing Expected Win Percentages

  • Boston 0.760 ExpWin% (0.756 Actual) **AL EAST LEADER**
  • St. Louis 0.742 ExpWin% (0.683 Actual) **NL EAST LEADER**
  • Montgomery 0.727 ExpWin% (0.683 Actual) **AL SOUTH LEADER**
  • Fresno 0.647 ExpWin% (0.571 Actual) 
  • Trenton 0.641 ExpWin% (0.683 Actual)  **NL NORTH LEADER**
  • Tucson 0.622 ExpWin% (0.595 Actual) **NL WEST LEADER**
  • Fargo 0.581 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual) **AL NORTH LEADER**
  • Kansas City 0.580 ExpWin% (0.634 Actual) **NL WC2**
  • Syracuse 0.537 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual)
  • New York 0.526 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual) **AL WC2**
  • New Orleans 0.522 ExpWin% (0.585 Actual) **AL WC1**
  • Rochester 0.517 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual) 
  • Durham 0.506 ExpWin% (0.512 Actual)
  • Cincinnati 0.500 ExpWin% (0.610 Actual) **NL WC1**
  • Texas 0.498 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual)
  • Helena 0.495 ExpWin% (0.537 Actual) 
  • Buffalo 0.487 ExpWin% (0.439 Actual) 
  • Portland 0.481 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual)
  • Colorado Springs 0.475 ExpWin (0.500 Actual) 
  • Baltimore 0.475 ExpWin% (0.488 Actual)
  • Philadelphia 0.473 ExpWin% (0.488 Actual)
  • Mexico City 0.461 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual) **NL SOUTH LEADER**
  • Los Angeles 0.458 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual) **AL WEST LEADER**
  • Tacoma 0.449 ExpWin% (0.463 Actual)
  • San Antonio 0.449 ExpWin% (0.415 Actual) 
  • Arizona 0.420 ExpWin% (0.341 Actual)
  • Boise 0.387 ExpWin% (0.381 Actual) 
  • Louisville 0.373 ExpWin% (0.293 Actual) 
  • Charlotte 0.325 ExpWin% (0.366 Actual) 
  • Chicago 0.325 ExpWin% (0.317 Actual)
  • Nashville 0.297 ExpWin% (0.317 Actual)  
  • Vancouver 0.220 ExpWin% (0.317 Actual) 

The Dreaded List

  • Louisville: 0.293 Win% = 47 win pace
  • Vancouver: 0.317 Win% = 51 win pace
  • Nashville: 0.317 Win% = 51 win pace
  • Chicago: 0.317 Win% = 51 win pace

Season 4 Recap


Season 4 Recap

Archers not stopped, but temporarily contained 

Last season we posed the question of whether or not there was a dynasty being formed in St. Louis. This year, I don't think there's any doubt about it: "the d word" is definitely in play...they've been to each of the first four World Series in Hardball Stitches history. Let us not forget, however: the title did not return to the city of arches. Instead, it travelled northward to the Queen City of the Prarie thanks to their Mud Dogs after they took down St. Louis in an entertaining World Series matchup. Now let's dig into the details of what happened last season: 

All-Star Weekend: Data not recorded 😥

American League

Division Titles 

  • AL North: Fargo (1st)
  • AL East: Boston (4th straight)
  • AL Central: Montgomery (1st)
  • AL West: Los Angeles (1st) 
Wild Cards
  • Syracuase: 1st WC, 4th playoff appearance 
  • Baltimore: 1st playoff appearance

National League

Division Titles
  • NL North: Trenton (4th straight)
  • NL East: St. Louis (4th straight)
  • NL Central: San Antonio (2nd straight)
  • NL West: Tucson (1st)
Wild Cards
  • Fresno: 1st WC, 3rd playoff appearance 
  • Indianapolis {now Kansas City}: 4th straight WC appearance

League Leaders: Data not recorded 😥

Awards

AL MVP: Matt Roberts (LF-Baltimore), 1st career MVP Award
NL MVP: Matthew Corey (1B-Tucson), 2nd straight MVP Award (2nd overall as well) 
AL Cy Young: Glenallen Cepicky (SP-Boston), 1st career Cy Young Award
NL Cy Young: Tex Richardson (SP-St. Louis), 1st career Cy Young Award
AL Rookie of the Year: Gerrit Martin (DH-Texas)
NL Rookie of the Year: Chan Iwamura (RP-Cincinnati)
AL Fireman of the Year: Jose Rios (RP-New Orleans), 2nd straight FOY Award (3rd overall) 
NL Fireman of the Year: David Gonzales (RP-Cincinnati), 1st career FOY Award

Minor Leagues

AAA
  • World Series: Philadelphia def. Buffalo 4-2 (1st AAA title)
  • Best Record: Los Angeles (98-46)
  • Worst Record: Louisville (30-114)
AA
  • World Series: Scottsdale {now Boise} def. Texas 4-1 (3rd AA title)
  • Best Record: Scottsdale (99-45)
  • Worst Record: Arizona (34-110)
High A 
  • World Series: Fargo def. Charlotte 4-2 (1st HiA title)
  • Best Record: Fargo (93-51)
  • Worst Record: Louisville (29-115) 
Low A
  • World Series: Nashville def. Boston 4-0 (1st LoA title)
  • Best Record: Charlotte (111-33)
  • Worst Record: Arizona (30-114)
Rookie
  • World Series: Montgomery def. Nashville 4-2 (1st RL title)
  • Best Record: Charlotte (65-11)
  • Worst Record: St. Louis (8-68)

I owe our readers an apology.

Somewhere between deadlines, domestic distractions, and a little too much enthusiasm for the All-Star Weekend festivities, I let the important things slip—namely, the complete data collection for the All-Star recap and the league leader sections of this season review.

In my defense (a weak one, I admit), the lights were bright, the games were loud, the celebrations were plentiful, and for a brief, ill-advised stretch, I convinced myself I could circle back and gather the numbers later. That confidence, like many late-night decisions, proved misplaced.

Personal matters demanded attention. The weekend demanded indulgence. And the spreadsheets, regrettably, were left waiting.

This article reflects the season as it was lived—intense, unpredictable, occasionally chaotic—but it falls short of the statistical completeness you deserve. For that, I take full responsibility and promise that future recaps will show better discipline, fewer distractions, and a much healthier respect for both data and moderation.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’ll be returning to my notes—wide awake, clear-headed, and determined to keep the fun firmly in check next time.

Jack Torrance, Contributor